— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
eps
51¢
nbm
46¢
aifs
46¢
wn2
46¢
icon
43¢
hres
32¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F30¢
68–69°F32¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,885 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 8.979.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261008-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-02T03:20:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape