daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Fri Oct 9

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 9

9¢

american +1051 · decimal 11.51

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		32¢
ndfd		25¢
rrfs		23¢
hres		19¢
nbm		16¢
eps		11¢
wn2		9¢
hrrr		7¢
icon		1¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

66–67°F2¢

68–69°F6¢

70–71°F16¢

72–73°F26¢

74–75°F26¢

76–77°F16¢

78–79°F6¢

80–81°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,786 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.698 vs climatology 8.991.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20261009-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-02T10:53:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape