— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
aifs
100¢
wn2
99¢
hres
96¢
icon
88¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F20¢
82–83°F24¢
84–85°F21¢
86–87°F12¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,740 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.977.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-05T16:04:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape