— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
98¢
aifs
96¢
wn2
96¢
hres
93¢
icon
88¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F24¢
84–85°F23¢
86–87°F15¢
88–89°F6¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,738 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.157 vs climatology 8.979.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-05T03:55:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape