— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
83¢
aifs
32¢
nbm
15¢
icon
15¢
wn2
14¢
hrrr
14¢
ndfd
13¢
hres
9¢
eps
4¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F11¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F22¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F13¢
88–89°F6¢
90–91°F2¢
92–93°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,688 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.991.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261011-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-05T11:28:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape