— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
80¢
hres
74¢
wn2
62¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
47¢
icon
42¢
aifs
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F9¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F26¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,095 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.521 vs climatology 8.918.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-07T16:33:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape