— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
62¢
ndfd
53¢
nbm
48¢
eps
30¢
hres
19¢
wn2
10¢
aifs
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
54–55°F1¢
56–57°F3¢
58–59°F10¢
60–61°F20¢
62–63°F27¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,095 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.521 vs climatology 8.918.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-07T04:20:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape