— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
96¢
ndfd
55¢
hres
49¢
nbm
46¢
icon
43¢
wn2
13¢
aifs
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F2¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F15¢
62–63°F24¢
64–65°F25¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,046 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.696 vs climatology 8.918.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261013-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-09T16:13:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape