— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
89¢
aifs
85¢
eps
74¢
nbm
53¢
wn2
46¢
icon
43¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F8¢
54–55°F19¢
56–57°F27¢
58–59°F24¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,150 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.694 vs climatology 8.893.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE61 · opened 2026-10-08T07:38:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape