— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
70¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
36¢
icon
24¢
hres
8¢
rrfs
3¢
aifs
2¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F2¢
52–53°F7¢
54–55°F17¢
56–57°F25¢
58–59°F24¢
60–61°F16¢
62–63°F6¢
64–65°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,150 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.694 vs climatology 8.893.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261015-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-10T04:17:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape