— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
63¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
37¢
nbm
32¢
hres
32¢
rrfs
27¢
wn2
25¢
icon
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F1¢
48–49°F4¢
50–51°F13¢
52–53°F24¢
54–55°F28¢
56–57°F19¢
58–59°F8¢
60–61°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,101 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.892.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE55 · opened 2026-10-09T11:37:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape