— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
70¢
hres
65¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
32¢
icon
30¢
aifs
22¢
wn2
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
46–47°F2¢
48–49°F7¢
50–51°F17¢
52–53°F26¢
54–55°F25¢
56–57°F16¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,200 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.693 vs climatology 8.884.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261016-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-11T04:30:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape