— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
94¢
aifs
89¢
icon
87¢
wn2
80¢
eps
74¢
nbm
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F11¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F19¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,003 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.474 vs climatology 8.892.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261018-TMAX-GE61 · opened 2026-10-11T11:19:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape