— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
68¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
hres
43¢
wn2
37¢
eps
22¢
icon
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F30¢
68–69°F26¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-15T16:20:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape