daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Tue Oct 20

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Tue Oct 20

3¢

american +2940 · decimal 30.4

on the tape

72°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 72°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		46¢
rrfs		40¢
wn2		24¢
hres		15¢
icon		8¢
eps		5¢
ndfd		4¢
nbm		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F1¢

62–63°F7¢

64–65°F19¢

66–67°F30¢

68–69°F26¢

70–71°F12¢

72–73°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20261020-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-10-13T11:50:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape