— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
97¢
aifs
90¢
wn2
86¢
icon
67¢
hres
62¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
51¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F29¢
70–71°F26¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape