daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Wed Oct 21

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 71°F+ · Wed Oct 21

28¢

american +255 · decimal 3.55

on the tape

71°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 71°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		86¢
aifs		70¢
wn2		58¢
icon		35¢
hres		34¢
ndfd		23¢
eps		18¢
nbm		12¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

62–63°F2¢

64–65°F7¢

66–67°F19¢

68–69°F29¢

70–71°F26¢

72–73°F13¢

74–75°F4¢

76–77°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20261021-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-14T10:33:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape