— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
94¢
wn2
81¢
hres
73¢
eps
58¢
nbm
52¢
icon
27¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F3¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F25¢
74–75°F23¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261022-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape