— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
85¢
wn2
61¢
nbm
54¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
44¢
hres
40¢
eps
19¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F21¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F8¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261023-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape