— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
aifs
53¢
wn2
51¢
hres
40¢
icon
26¢
nbm
25¢
eps
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F10¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261024-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-18T15:41:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape