— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
97¢
icon
93¢
eps
86¢
nbm
63¢
aifs
57¢
ndfd
53¢
wn2
34¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
52–53°F1¢
54–55°F2¢
56–57°F4¢
58–59°F7¢
60–61°F11¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F15¢
66–67°F14¢
68–69°F12¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261025-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:49+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape