— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
37¢
eps
30¢
nbm
29¢
hres
13¢
wn2
1¢
aifs
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
44–45°F1¢
46–47°F2¢
48–49°F4¢
50–51°F6¢
52–53°F9¢
54–55°F12¢
56–57°F14¢
58–59°F14¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F2¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,335 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.605 vs climatology 8.757.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261026-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape