— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
85¢
wn2
74¢
aifs
72¢
eps
57¢
nbm
53¢
icon
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F26¢
76–77°F27¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSY-20261019-TMAX-GE79 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:16+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape