— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
56¢
nbm
41¢
rrfs
29¢
aifs
19¢
eps
17¢
wn2
14¢
hres
11¢
hrrr
7¢
icon
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F31¢
80–81°F29¢
82–83°F14¢
84–85°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSY-20261021-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-15T04:02:08+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape