daily prop · New Orleans, LA · Southeast · settles Thu Oct 22

New Orleans runs hot-for-here: 86°F+ · Thu Oct 22

4¢

american +2632 · decimal 27.32

on the tape

86°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 86°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

ndfd		33¢
rrfs		24¢
aifs		8¢
hres		8¢
icon		6¢
nbm		5¢
wn2		5¢
eps		3¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

74–75°F1¢

76–77°F5¢

78–79°F18¢

80–81°F31¢

82–83°F28¢

84–85°F13¢

86–87°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSY-20261022-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape