— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
icon
44¢
nbm
25¢
wn2
25¢
aifs
19¢
hres
17¢
eps
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F30¢
82–83°F28¢
84–85°F14¢
86–87°F4¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSY-20261023-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape