— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
eps
52¢
wn2
29¢
aifs
16¢
icon
14¢
hres
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F16¢
76–77°F24¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F8¢
84–85°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSY-20261025-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:14+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape