— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
45¢
icon
40¢
hres
21¢
eps
13¢
wn2
10¢
aifs
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F21¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-13T04:16:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape