— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
10¢
hres
8¢
nbm
8¢
eps
2¢
icon
2¢
wn2
2¢
aifs
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOKC-20261019-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape