— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
91¢
wn2
90¢
aifs
88¢
hres
71¢
icon
64¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F15¢
84–85°F8¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOKC-20261024-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-20T04:04:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape