— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
20¢
nbm
14¢
icon
12¢
aifs
3¢
wn2
1¢
hres
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F10¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F12¢
74–75°F9¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOKC-20261027-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape