— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
33¢
eps
33¢
aifs
16¢
wn2
16¢
icon
15¢
hres
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F11¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F22¢
70–71°F19¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,055 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.474 vs climatology 8.884.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOMA-20261019-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-14T15:12:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape