— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
70¢
wn2
68¢
ndfd
55¢
nbm
44¢
icon
39¢
eps
30¢
hres
25¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F27¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-17T04:42:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape