— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
40¢
wn2
36¢
nbm
23¢
icon
18¢
hres
8¢
eps
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F20¢
76–77°F27¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F12¢
82–83°F4¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOMA-20261022-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape