— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
wn2
42¢
icon
35¢
nbm
33¢
aifs
29¢
hres
17¢
eps
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F24¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F14¢
82–83°F6¢
84–85°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KOMA-20261023-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape