daily prop · Chicago, IL · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Fri Oct 16

Chicago high ≥ 60°F · Fri Oct 16

settled · observed 57

whiplash on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 60°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Verdict

This prop traded as high as 92¢ and busted; crossed 70¢ in both directions — a genuine whiplash.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		84¢
icon		73¢
wn2		68¢
aifs		57¢
ndfd		55¢
hres		43¢
nbm		40¢

Receipts

prop id WP-KORD-20261016-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-12T04:01:22+00:00 · settled 2026-10-17T13:52:28+00:00 against ACIS official NWS daily record · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape