— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
90¢
wn2
89¢
eps
80¢
hres
77¢
icon
75¢
nbm
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F12¢
62–63°F23¢
64–65°F28¢
66–67°F20¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,153 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.883.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-10-11T07:32:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape