— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
59¢
aifs
59¢
eps
58¢
wn2
56¢
nbm
41¢
hres
25¢
rrfs
19¢
icon
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F25¢
64–65°F28¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F8¢
70–71°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,153 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.883.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261018-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-12T15:27:06+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape