— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
84¢
aifs
78¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
41¢
eps
40¢
icon
30¢
hres
30¢
rrfs
18¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F4¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F30¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261020-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-10-18T04:13:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape