— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
aifs
46¢
nbm
33¢
wn2
32¢
icon
11¢
hres
6¢
eps
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F2¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F22¢
70–71°F29¢
72–73°F23¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,361 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.86.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261022-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape