— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
66¢
wn2
66¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
37¢
nbm
37¢
eps
18¢
hres
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-10-18T04:13:59+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape