— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
73¢
aifs
56¢
icon
29¢
ndfd
25¢
nbm
15¢
hres
8¢
eps
7¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F18¢
70–71°F20¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F6¢
78–79°F2¢
80–81°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,263 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.483 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261024-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-10-17T11:32:04+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape