— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
94¢
aifs
83¢
icon
66¢
hres
61¢
nbm
54¢
eps
44¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F9¢
68–69°F13¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F6¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,214 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.858 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261025-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-18T11:48:13+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape