— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
54¢
eps
49¢
wn2
46¢
icon
45¢
hres
41¢
aifs
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F5¢
62–63°F9¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F16¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F10¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,335 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.605 vs climatology 8.757.
Receipts
prop id WP-KORD-20261026-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:07+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape