— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
84¢
wn2
84¢
hres
83¢
icon
80¢
eps
67¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
46¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F34¢
74–75°F41¢
76–77°F14¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261021-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape