— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
91¢
wn2
63¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
hres
53¢
aifs
46¢
icon
42¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F9¢
62–63°F21¢
64–65°F30¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F11¢
70–71°F3¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-16T04:25:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape