daily prop · Portland, OR · West Coast & Southwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Portland runs hot-for-here: 70°F+ · Thu Oct 22

3¢

american +2986 · decimal 30.86

on the tape

70°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 70°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		84¢
rrfs		26¢
ndfd		15¢
icon		14¢
hres		13¢
aifs		5¢
nbm		1¢
wn2		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

58–59°F2¢

60–61°F9¢

62–63°F21¢

64–65°F30¢

66–67°F24¢

68–69°F11¢

70–71°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,462 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.69 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPDX-20261022-TMAX-GE70 · opened 2026-10-15T07:50:31+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape