— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
63¢
ndfd
53¢
eps
52¢
nbm
47¢
icon
19¢
hres
19¢
wn2
16¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F1¢
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F5¢
56–57°F10¢
58–59°F16¢
60–61°F19¢
62–63°F19¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F8¢
68–69°F4¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261024-TMAX-GE62 · opened 2026-10-18T04:14:50+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape