— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
64¢
wn2
55¢
nbm
54¢
hres
43¢
icon
21¢
aifs
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
48–49°F1¢
50–51°F1¢
52–53°F3¢
54–55°F5¢
56–57°F9¢
58–59°F12¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F11¢
68–69°F7¢
70–71°F4¢
72–73°F2¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KPDX-20261026-TMAX-GE60 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape