daily prop · Philadelphia, PA · Northeast & Mid-Atlantic · settles Wed Oct 21

Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

64¢

american -180 · decimal 1.55

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 64°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

eps		83¢
wn2		68¢
aifs		68¢
nbm		56¢
ndfd		55¢
icon		49¢
hres		38¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F2¢

62–63°F9¢

64–65°F22¢

66–67°F31¢

68–69°F24¢

70–71°F10¢

72–73°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.

Receipts

prop id WP-KPHL-20261021-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-18T04:13:38+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape